Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian officially approved a law on Wednesday suspending Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), according to state media. This marks a dramatic escalation in Tehran’s longstanding dispute with international nuclear oversight bodies and their bodies of oversight. mes facebook.com.inten.t, Reuter’s.com and TimesofIsrael all reported about this development as well.
Scope of Legislation
Iran’s parliament approved legislation – passed overwhelmingly and approved by its Guardian Council this week – mandating that all future inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities must receive explicit permission from Tehran’s Supreme National Security Council before accessing declared sites, effectively barring IAEA inspectors from accessing declared sites without explicit government approval. For more details please see today.lorientlejour.com, reuters.com, and APNews for updates.
Under Iranian law, regular activities of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran such as surveillance camera installations, inspections, and reporting will be suspended until Tehran’s security concerns have been allayed. Iranian officials justified this move by accusing it of political bias–citing its recent resolution labelling Tehran noncompliant and supporting Israeli and U.S. attacks against Iranian nuclear sites as evidence. Aljazeera.com/ @Reuters/ @Reuters/@Reuters en.wikipedia org can all provide more details.
Background: Tit-for-Tat Tensions
This legislation follows a volatile escalation, after the International Atomic Energy Agency Board declared Iran in violation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty obligations on June 12, prompting Israel’s airstrikes beginning June 13 and U.S. bombing campaigns targeting Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan later that month. Aljazeera.com +10; Reuter’s +10 and Wikipedia for further insight are all resources which have covered this event extensively: Aljazeera +10, Reuter’s +10 and Wikipedia for further reading
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi publicly supported Iran’s law during an interview, accusing Western powers of initiating strikes, and suggesting Iran may restrict access by IAEA Director Rafael Grossi to bombed facilities for inspection purposes. Araqchi described requests to inspect them as “malignant”, while also hinting that Grossi himself might not be permitted into Iran in future visits (reuters.com).
Reaction of International Community
Officials at Vienna and beyond confirmed IAEA officials’ anticipation that Iran would issue formal clarification regarding accessing sites; while inspectors remain present in Iran they have received no indication from Tehran as to where to go or be placed.
Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar condemned Iran’s suspension as “a complete abrogation of all its international nuclear obligations and commitments”, and called upon European members of the 2015 nuclear deal framework to invoke its “snapback” clause and reinstate UN sanctions. Wsj.com/apnews.com/almonitor
Western leaders–particularly from the G7–have voiced concern that Iran’s move jeopardizes monitoring of its stockpile of 60%-enriched material (estimated at over 400 kg), as well as raise suspicion of undeclared weapons work and undeclared arms production. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned of potential Board action should Tehran fail to restore required monitoring. Wsj.com.
Implications for Nuclear Diplomacy
This decision complicates ongoing U.S.-Iran indirect talks, from their first round in Muscat in April until their fifth and latest round in Rome late May. U.S. officials expressed openness to diplomacy only if Tehran agreed not to escalate militarily while Iran maintained that their sovereign rights under the NPT (including enrichment) must be respected while accusing IAEA of bias. For more information about this story visit yahoo.com; Wsj; Wikipedia for further reading/sources etc…
Analysts warn of how a breakdown in cooperation may greatly hamper transparency, making it harder for the IAEA to verify Tehran’s nuclear program and increasing worldwide concerns over breakout potential. Analysts see this situation as marking an inflection point in Iran’s nuclear posture–withholding sovereignty while straining diplomatic options.
What to Expect
Now that the law has taken effect, Tehran holds all of the cards: whether or not to offer terms for resuming IAEA oversight, allow Azerbaijan-style inspections or both? Should no agreement be reached, international sanctions may reappear or alternative enforcement methods could be pursued by governments around the globe; tensions remain high while future of Iran’s nuclear program – as well as renewed agreements – hangs in the balance.